Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-04-15 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 48.6%

MTL: 51.4%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.15

MTL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DET at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	10	1	0.57
1	MTL	10	0	0.68
2	DET	15	1	1.28
2	MTL	8	0	0.84
3	DET	23	2	1.53
3	MTL	7	1	0.44
4	DET	5	0	0.46
4	MTL	3	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2