Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-04-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 58.5%

BUF: 41.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.43

BUF: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	24	2	2.23
1	BUF	12	0	1.05
2	TBL	11	0	0.77
2	BUF	20	0	1.45
3	TBL	14	0	0.70
3	BUF	13	2	2.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8