Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-04-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 59.1%

DET: 40.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.28

DET: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • MTL at home vs DET: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	1	0.76
1	DET	15	1	0.79
2	MTL	23	3	2.65
2	DET	12	0	0.67
3	MTL	8	0	0.48
3	DET	25	1	1.25
4	MTL	4	0	0.25
4	DET	2	0	0.16
5	MTL	2	0	0.12
5	DET	3	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8