Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2024-04-16 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 63.1%
WSH: 36.9%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.49
WSH: 2.25
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 34%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | PHI | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.929 | 0.958 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs WSH: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | WSH 3 - 1 PHI | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-02-03 | PHI 4 - 2 WSH | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-03-20 | WSH 3 - 2 PHI | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-02-06 | PHI 3 - 4 WSH | WSH | PHI |
| 2024-10-23 | WSH 6 - 3 PHI | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:08 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 12:29 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:00 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.5 - 2.2