Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-04-21 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

FLA: 52.2%

TBL: 47.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.51

TBL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	2	1.40
1	TBL	18	1	0.84
2	FLA	11	0	0.37
2	TBL	9	1	0.60
3	FLA	15	2	1.74
3	TBL	16	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2