Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-04-25 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 54.4%

FLA: 45.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.12

FLA: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	0.68
1	FLA	17	1	0.74
2	TBL	21	0	0.94
2	FLA	11	0	0.40
3	TBL	10	0	0.38
3	FLA	14	2	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9