Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-04-29 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 6 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

FLA: 56.8%

TBL: 43.2%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.99

TBL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	8	1	0.61
1	TBL	14	0	0.64
2	FLA	30	0	2.49
2	TBL	20	0	1.13
3	FLA	13	3	2.17
3	TBL	16	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 6 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0