Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-04-22 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BOS: 40.0%

TOR: 60.0%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.66

TOR: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	15	0	0.74
1	TOR	17	2	1.06
2	BOS	18	0	0.95
2	TOR	20	0	1.25
3	BOS	13	0	0.47
3	TOR	9	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5