Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-04-24 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 59.7%

BOS: 40.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.26

BOS: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	10	0	0.64
1	BOS	12	0	0.60
2	TOR	13	1	1.11
2	BOS	20	1	1.02
3	TOR	19	1	1.35
3	BOS	17	4	2.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9