Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2024-04-22 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 62.0%
VGK: 38.0%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.39
VGK: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | DAL | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.810 | — |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 43% • DAL at home vs VGK: 3-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | VGK 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | VGK |
| 2025-01-28 | VGK 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | VGK |
| 2025-01-24 | DAL 4 - 3 VGK | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-12-06 | VGK 3 - 2 DAL | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-05-05 | DAL 2 - 1 VGK | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:23 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 08:27 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 16:07 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 17:51 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 18:29 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 01:06 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 11:46 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9