Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-04-22 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 51.8%

VGK: 48.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.47

VGK: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	2	1.54
1	VGK	14	1	1.00
2	DAL	17	0	0.82
2	VGK	8	0	0.20
3	DAL	12	0	0.40
3	VGK	9	1	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2