Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2024-04-24 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 66.4%
VGK: 33.6%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.55
VGK: 2.56
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | DAL | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.916 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.896 | — |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | DAL 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-03-10 | DAL 2 - 1 VGK | DAL | DAL |
| 2026-01-29 | VGK 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | VGK |
| 2025-01-28 | VGK 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | VGK |
| 2025-01-24 | DAL 4 - 3 VGK | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:47 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 18:09 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:53 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:26 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 66.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.6 - 2.6
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