Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-04-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

VGK: 42.9%

DAL: 57.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.80

DAL: 4.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	22	1	0.99
1	DAL	14	0	0.29
2	VGK	13	1	1.42
2	DAL	27	3	2.33
3	VGK	22	1	1.05
3	DAL	10	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 4.4