Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-05-01 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

DAL: 55.5%

VGK: 44.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.57

VGK: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	0	1.21
1	VGK	15	0	1.03
2	DAL	15	0	1.18
2	VGK	10	0	0.26
3	DAL	10	2	1.13
3	VGK	16	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2