Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-05-03 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 0 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 49.8%

DAL: 50.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.07

DAL: 4.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	16	1	1.14
1	DAL	9	0	0.85
2	VGK	18	0	0.84
2	DAL	20	1	1.32
3	VGK	13	1	1.09
3	DAL	8	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 0 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 4.0