Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-05-05 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

DAL: 58.1%

VGK: 41.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.07

VGK: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.25
1	VGK	11	0	0.57
2	DAL	16	0	0.95
2	VGK	13	0	0.37
3	DAL	15	1	0.83
3	VGK	12	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 2.5