Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-05-07 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

DAL: 44.3%

COL: 55.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.75

COL: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	1	0.96
1	COL	8	0	0.17
2	DAL	7	1	0.51
2	COL	17	2	1.61
3	DAL	10	0	0.32
3	COL	10	1	0.55
4	DAL	9	0	0.53
4	COL	7	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 3.5