Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-05-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 59.8%

DAL: 40.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.21

DAL: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	1	1.11
1	DAL	6	1	0.41
2	COL	21	1	1.91
2	DAL	13	3	1.24
3	COL	11	0	0.60
3	DAL	13	2	1.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9