Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-05-13 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 61.4%

DAL: 38.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.99

DAL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	6	0	0.28
1	DAL	22	2	2.35
2	COL	17	0	0.70
2	DAL	18	1	1.16
3	COL	21	0	0.82
3	DAL	10	4	2.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1