Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-05-15 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

DAL: 44.4%

COL: 55.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.29

COL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	1	0.83
1	COL	16	0	1.21
2	DAL	13	2	1.06
2	COL	13	0	0.81
3	DAL	21	0	1.44
3	COL	16	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3