Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2024-05-15 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 54.7%
COL: 45.3%
Expected Goals
DAL: 2.90
COL: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | DAL | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 0.818 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | COL 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | COL |
| 2025-05-03 | DAL 4 - 2 COL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-01 | COL 7 - 4 DAL | COL | COL |
| 2025-04-28 | DAL 6 - 2 COL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-04-26 | COL 4 - 0 DAL | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:03 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:59 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:39 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:24 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:12 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:28 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:44 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:50 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1