Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2024-05-31 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 57.4%
EDM: 42.6%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.18
EDM: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | DAL | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.880 | 0.913 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • DAL at home vs EDM: 5-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | EDM 3 - 8 DAL | DAL | EDM |
| 2025-11-04 | DAL 4 - 3 EDM | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-29 | DAL 3 - 6 EDM | EDM | DAL |
| 2025-05-27 | EDM 4 - 1 DAL | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-05-25 | EDM 6 - 1 DAL | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:09 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 01:06 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 05:09 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 14:09 | EDM | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0