Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-10-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

MTL: 50.7%

TOR: 49.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.04

TOR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	2	1.91
1	TOR	25	0	1.48
2	MTL	7	0	0.85
2	TOR	21	0	1.30
3	MTL	8	0	0.65
3	TOR	31	2	1.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1