New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-10-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 6 New York Rangers

Win Probability

PIT: 46.1%

NYR: 53.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 1.41

NYR: 3.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	40	34	6	85.0%	4.94	7	-1.06
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	31	31	0	100.0%	3.00	0	3.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs NYR: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	PIT
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	0	1.26
1	NYR	18	2	1.18
2	PIT	17	0	1.26
2	NYR	21	1	1.52
3	PIT	14	0	0.48
3	NYR	19	4	2.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 6 New York Rangers

Expected: 1.4 - 3.9