Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-10-09 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 0 - 6 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 54.5%

WPG: 45.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.79

WPG: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	20	14	6	70.0%	2.23	1	-3.77
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	30	30	0	100.0%	2.61	2	2.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs WPG: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	WPG 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-12-29	WPG 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	WPG
2025-12-06	EDM 6 - 2 WPG	EDM	EDM
2025-04-13	WPG 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-20	EDM 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	0	0.60
1	WPG	13	1	1.14
2	EDM	21	2	1.51
2	WPG	11	0	0.68
3	EDM	15	0	0.50
3	WPG	7	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 0 - 6 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0