Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2024-10-09 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 5 - 6 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 49.2%
CGY: 50.8%
Expected Goals
VAN: 2.82
CGY: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
Arturs Silovs - 3-0-1 | 0.881 SV% | 2.47 GAA
CGY
Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA
| Stat | VAN | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.898 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.47 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | Arturs Silovs | 26 | 20 | 6 | 76.9% | 2.83 | 3 | -3.17 |
| CGY | Dan Vladar | 24 | 19 | 5 | 79.2% | 2.49 | 3 | -2.51 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • VAN at home vs CGY: 7-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | VAN 4 - 1 CGY | VAN | VAN |
| 2026-03-28 | CGY 7 - 3 VAN | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-11-23 | VAN 2 - 5 CGY | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-10-09 | VAN 5 - 1 CGY | VAN | VAN |
| 2025-03-12 | CGY 3 - 4 VAN | VAN | CGY |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VAN | 19 | 3 | 1.81 |
| 1 | CGY | 8 | 2 | 0.99 |
| 2 | VAN | 4 | 0 | 0.11 |
| 2 | CGY | 17 | 0 | 0.92 |
| 3 | VAN | 13 | 0 | 0.57 |
| 3 | CGY | 15 | 0 | 0.41 |
| 4 | VAN | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 4 | CGY | 3 | 1 | 0.51 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 5 - 6 Calgary Flames
Expected: 2.8 - 3.0
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