Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-10-10 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

OTT: 56.4%

FLA: 43.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.82

FLA: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 51%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	32	31	1	96.9%	2.32	0	1.32
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	31	28	3	90.3%	2.48	2	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs FLA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	1	1.21
1	FLA	15	0	0.68
2	OTT	9	0	0.27
2	FLA	13	0	0.65
3	OTT	11	1	1.00
3	FLA	24	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 2.7