Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2024-10-10 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 60.4%
PIT: 39.6%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.72
PIT: 5.07
Total Goals
Median: 9.6
Over 5.5: 90%
Over 6.5: 84%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | DET | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.884 | 0.931 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs PIT: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | PIT 5 - 1 DET | PIT | DET |
| 2026-01-03 | DET 1 - 4 PIT | PIT | DET |
| 2026-01-01 | PIT 4 - 3 DET | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-12-31 | DET 4 - 2 PIT | DET | DET |
| 2024-11-13 | PIT 2 - 3 DET | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:46 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 15:02 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 02:55 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 03:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:28 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 12:32 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 01:42 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 08:13 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 12:21 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 8.8
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.7 - 5.1
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