Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-10-10 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 63.2%

PIT: 36.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.24

PIT: 5.02

Total Goals

Median: 7.2

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 58%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DET at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.30
1	PIT	10	0	0.45
2	DET	15	1	0.82
2	PIT	16	2	1.34
3	DET	12	0	0.82
3	PIT	15	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 8.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 5.0