Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2024-10-10 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 58.6%
TOR: 41.4%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.02
TOR: 3.15
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 23-19-1 | 0.883 SV% | 3.07 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | NJD | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.873 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.893 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 11% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | NJD 4 - 3 TOR | NJD | NJD |
| 2025-12-30 | TOR 4 - 0 NJD | TOR | NJD |
| 2025-10-21 | TOR 2 - 5 NJD | NJD | TOR |
| 2025-01-16 | TOR 4 - 3 NJD | TOR | NJD |
| 2024-12-10 | NJD 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NJD |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:18 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 11:29 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 14:46 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:18 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 14:52 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:54 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1
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