Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-10-10 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 62.7%

TOR: 37.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.26

TOR: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 44%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	22	18	4	81.8%	1.92	1	-2.08
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	23	21	2	91.3%	2.33	0	0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	NJD
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	NJD
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	NJD
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	0	0.81
1	TOR	13	0	0.42
2	NJD	19	0	0.98
2	TOR	11	0	0.75
3	NJD	11	0	0.54
3	TOR	6	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1