St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-10-10 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 58.4%

STL: 41.6%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.52

STL: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	40	35	5	87.5%	3.49	2	-1.51
STL	Joel Hofer	29	25	4	86.2%	2.48	2	-1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • SJS at home vs STL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	STL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	STL
2026-03-30	SJS 5 - 4 STL	SJS	STL
2026-03-26	STL 2 - 1 SJS	STL	STL
2026-03-06	SJS 2 - 3 STL	STL	STL
2024-12-12	STL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	11	1	0.92
1	STL	27	2	1.76
2	SJS	21	1	1.50
2	STL	11	0	0.67
3	SJS	3	0	0.06
3	STL	15	0	1.01
4	SJS	0	0	0.00
4	STL	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9