Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2024-10-11 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 54.8%

TBL: 45.2%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.67

TBL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	23	19	4	82.6%	3.80	3	-0.20
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	20	1	95.2%	4.09	5	3.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • CAR at home vs TBL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	15	1	1.44
1	TBL	12	0	0.80
2	CAR	17	3	2.08
2	TBL	5	0	0.54
3	CAR	9	1	0.57
3	TBL	14	3	2.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0