Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2024-10-11 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

VAN: 46.5%

PHI: 53.5%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.64

PHI: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	35	31	4	88.6%	5.16	5	1.16
PHI	Samuel Ersson	30	27	3	90.0%	3.48	2	0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • VAN at home vs PHI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-30	VAN 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-22	PHI 5 - 2 VAN	PHI	PHI
2024-10-19	PHI 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-10-11	VAN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-28	VAN 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	15	1	1.33
1	PHI	12	0	0.78
2	VAN	10	0	0.29
2	PHI	8	1	0.68
3	VAN	18	0	0.75
3	PHI	17	2	1.48
4	VAN	3	0	0.10
4	PHI	2	0	0.16
5	VAN	5	1	1.02
5	PHI	5	2	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.6 - 2.9