St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-11 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

VGK: 71.9%

STL: 28.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.52

STL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 36%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs STL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	1	1.14
1	STL	11	0	0.43
2	VGK	15	1	1.40
2	STL	7	1	0.72
3	VGK	9	0	0.40
3	STL	15	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2