Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-10-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

TOR: 60.1%

PIT: 39.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.90

PIT: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs PIT: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.64
1	PIT	13	0	0.67
2	TOR	14	2	0.98
2	PIT	14	1	1.02
3	TOR	13	2	1.92
3	PIT	10	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8