Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-10-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

TOR: 64.7%

PIT: 35.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.56

PIT: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

PIT

J. Blomqvist

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	23	21	2	91.3%	2.25	1	0.25
PIT	J. Blomqvist	33	29	4	87.9%	3.54	4	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs PIT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.64
1	PIT	13	0	0.67
2	TOR	14	2	0.98
2	PIT	14	1	1.02
3	TOR	13	2	1.92
3	PIT	10	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8