Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-10-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

MTL: 63.2%

OTT: 36.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.03

OTT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	25	24	1	96.0%	1.76	1	0.76
OTT	Linus Ullmark	26	22	4	84.6%	3.15	3	-0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs OTT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	1	0.81
1	OTT	11	0	0.44
2	MTL	5	0	0.28
2	OTT	17	0	0.52
3	MTL	17	2	2.06
3	OTT	11	1	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1