Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-01-07 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.5%
CAR: 40.5%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.66
CAR: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 46%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 23-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.16 GAA
| Stat | TBL | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.915 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.818 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • TBL at home vs CAR: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | CAR | ||
| 2025-12-20 | TBL 6 - 4 CAR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-11 | CAR 4 - 1 TBL | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-01-07 | TBL 3 - 2 CAR | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-10-11 | CAR 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:38 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 09:17 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:08 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes
Expected: 2.7 - 3.1