Utah Hockey Club at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-10-12 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 6 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 50.6%

UTA: 49.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.61

UTA: 4.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

UTA

Connor Ingram - 9-8-4 | 0.882 SV% | 3.27 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	20	6	76.9%	3.16	2	-2.84
UTA	Connor Ingram	34	29	5	85.3%	3.64	2	-1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs UTA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	NYR 4 - 2 UTA	NYR	NYR
2026-01-05	NYR 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-11-22	UTA 3 - 2 NYR	UTA	UTA
2025-01-16	UTA 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	UTA
2024-10-12	NYR 5 - 6 UTA	UTA	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	16	1	1.11
1	UTA	12	0	0.60
2	NYR	15	0	0.91
2	UTA	16	1	1.18
3	NYR	21	1	1.50
3	UTA	14	1	0.93
4	NYR	3	0	0.11
4	UTA	3	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 8.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 6 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.6 - 4.6