Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-10-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

CGY: 66.2%

PHI: 33.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.72

PHI: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.3

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 34%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	40	37	3	92.5%	2.94	0	-0.06
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	32	26	6	81.2%	3.88	4	-2.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs PHI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	1	0.78
1	PHI	28	0	1.45
2	CGY	12	1	0.94
2	PHI	16	0	0.87
3	CGY	19	2	2.15
3	PHI	12	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1