Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-10-13 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 0 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 48.1%

SEA: 51.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.14

SEA: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	25	25	0	100.0%	2.11	1	2.11
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	23	21	2	91.3%	2.77	4	0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs SEA: 10-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	2	1.16
1	SEA	9	0	0.39
2	DAL	12	1	0.64
2	SEA	18	0	0.68
3	DAL	9	1	0.97
3	SEA	15	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 0 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8