Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-10-13 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 65.3%

CGY: 34.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.43

CGY: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • EDM at home vs CGY: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	14	1	0.67
1	CGY	9	0	0.85
2	EDM	11	0	0.34
2	CGY	17	0	1.37
3	EDM	16	1	1.01
3	CGY	18	5	3.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7