Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2024-10-13 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 1 - 4 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 63.4%
CGY: 36.6%
Expected Goals
EDM: 2.42
CGY: 3.29
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 39%
Over 6.5: 28%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
| Stat | EDM | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.837 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • EDM at home vs CGY: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | CGY 4 - 3 EDM | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-12-27 | CGY 3 - 2 EDM | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-12-23 | EDM 5 - 1 CGY | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-10-08 | EDM 3 - 4 CGY | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-03-29 | EDM 3 - 2 CGY | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:16 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 07:30 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 07:06 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 09:27 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 19:36 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 1 - 4 Calgary Flames
Expected: 2.4 - 3.3
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