Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-10-13 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 73.9%

CGY: 26.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.93

CGY: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	29	25	4	86.2%	5.50	5	1.50
CGY	Dan Vladar	26	25	1	96.2%	2.02	2	1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • EDM at home vs CGY: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	14	1	0.67
1	CGY	9	0	0.85
2	EDM	11	0	0.34
2	CGY	17	0	1.37
3	EDM	16	1	1.01
3	CGY	18	5	3.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 2.7