Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-10-14 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

NYR: 69.0%

DET: 31.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.50

DET: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 75%

Over 6.5: 60%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	32	31	1	96.9%	3.84	6	2.84
DET	Alex Lyon	28	24	4	85.7%	3.71	3	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • NYR at home vs DET: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-02	DET 0 - 2 NYR	NYR	DET
2026-04-04	NYR 4 - 1 DET	NYR	NYR
2025-11-16	NYR 1 - 2 DET	DET	NYR
2025-11-07	DET 1 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2024-11-09	DET 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.88
1	DET	10	1	0.61
2	NYR	15	1	1.40
2	DET	20	4	2.23
3	NYR	13	2	1.43
3	DET	14	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6