Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-10-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

MTL: 32.2%

PIT: 67.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.72

PIT: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	24	6	80.0%	4.52	6	-1.48
PIT	Tristan Jarry	28	25	3	89.3%	3.15	3	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs PIT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	PIT
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	1	0.54
1	PIT	22	1	1.12
2	MTL	17	1	1.23
2	PIT	12	1	0.89
3	MTL	15	1	1.38
3	PIT	15	4	2.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9