Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-10-15 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Vancouver Canucks
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 50.9%
VAN: 49.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.53
VAN: 1.56
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 43%
Over 6.5: 27%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-19-4 | 0.876 SV% | 3.67 GAA
| Stat | TBL | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.885 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.793 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.933 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.41 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs VAN: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | TBL 2 - 6 VAN | VAN | TBL |
| 2024-12-08 | VAN 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | VAN |
| 2024-10-15 | TBL 4 - 1 VAN | TBL | TBL |
| 2023-12-12 | VAN 4 - 1 TBL | VAN | VAN |
| 2023-10-19 | TBL 4 - 3 VAN | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:43 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:14 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:14 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:39 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Vancouver Canucks
Expected: 3.5 - 1.6