Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (66% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 34.1%

VAN: 65.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.45

VAN: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 45%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VAN

Arturs Silovs - 3-0-1 | 0.881 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	26	1	96.3%	3.09	1	2.09
VAN	Arturs Silovs	27	23	4	85.2%	4.87	5	0.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs VAN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	2	2.31
1	VAN	10	0	0.33
2	TBL	8	0	0.33
2	VAN	14	0	1.24
3	TBL	15	3	2.23
3	VAN	15	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.5 - 2.8