Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 37.0%

VAN: 63.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.86

VAN: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	TBL
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	2	2.31
1	VAN	10	0	0.33
2	TBL	8	0	0.33
2	VAN	14	0	1.24
3	TBL	15	3	2.23
3	VAN	15	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8