Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-10-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 43.0%

VGK: 57.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.27

VGK: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WSH at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	0.65
1	VGK	11	0	0.80
2	WSH	22	5	2.95
2	VGK	11	1	1.06
3	WSH	5	1	0.80
3	VGK	17	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0