San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-10-15 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

DAL: 69.7%

SJS: 30.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.98

SJS: 2.25

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	26	3	89.7%	4.10	3	1.10
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	41	36	5	87.8%	6.55	6	1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DAL at home vs SJS: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	DAL
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	SJS
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	22	1	1.26
1	SJS	10	0	0.61
2	DAL	24	2	2.22
2	SJS	12	1	1.09
3	DAL	15	0	0.80
3	SJS	14	1	1.16
4	DAL	1	0	0.06
4	SJS	2	0	0.27
5	DAL	3	3	2.21
5	SJS	2	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.0 - 2.2