Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-10-15 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

EDM: 64.1%

PHI: 35.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.46

PHI: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 36%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	30	27	3	90.0%	2.97	0	-0.03
PHI	Samuel Ersson	31	27	4	87.1%	3.80	3	-0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs PHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	EDM 2 - 5 PHI	PHI	EDM
2025-11-12	PHI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	PHI
2025-02-22	PHI 6 - 3 EDM	PHI	EDM
2024-10-15	EDM 4 - 3 PHI	EDM	EDM
2024-01-02	EDM 5 - 2 PHI	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.58
1	PHI	16	0	0.89
2	EDM	17	1	1.83
2	PHI	16	0	1.39
3	EDM	15	0	0.83
3	PHI	11	0	0.69
4	EDM	2	2	0.55
4	PHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.3