Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2024-10-16 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 3 - 5 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 51.5%
BOS: 48.5%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.40
BOS: 3.68
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | COL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.889 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.879 | 0.929 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • COL at home vs BOS: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | BOS 3 - 2 COL | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-10-18 | COL 4 - 1 BOS | COL | COL |
| 2025-01-25 | BOS 3 - 1 COL | BOS | BOS |
| 2024-10-16 | COL 3 - 5 BOS | BOS | COL |
| 2024-01-18 | BOS 5 - 2 COL | BOS | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:46 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 15:07 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:09 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 09:09 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 09:22 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 11:15 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 04:52 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 17:59 | BOS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 7.1
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 3 - 5 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.4 - 3.7