Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-10-17 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.4%
VGK: 40.6%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.41
VGK: 3.18
Total Goals
Median: 7.5
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 61%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | TBL | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.922 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs VGK: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | VGK 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-10-26 | TBL 2 - 1 VGK | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-03-23 | VGK 4 - 2 TBL | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-10-17 | TBL 4 - 3 VGK | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-19 | VGK 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:26 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 10:21 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:20 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 19:47 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:59 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 17:38 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:05 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.4 - 3.2
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