Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-10-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

WSH: 59.2%

DAL: 40.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.15

DAL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	6	0	0.38
1	DAL	9	0	0.37
2	WSH	18	1	1.47
2	DAL	12	2	1.21
3	WSH	12	2	1.07
3	DAL	15	0	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0