Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-10-19 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

OTT: 54.8%

TBL: 45.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.38

TBL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	29	25	4	86.2%	2.01	0	-1.99
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	23	5	82.1%	2.49	1	-2.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • OTT at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.77
1	TBL	8	0	0.37
2	OTT	14	1	1.26
2	TBL	15	0	0.78
3	OTT	8	0	0.46
3	TBL	14	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1