Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-10-19 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

FLA: 57.1%

VGK: 42.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.22

VGK: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	26	23	3	88.5%	2.55	2	-0.45
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	49	45	4	91.8%	3.42	1	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • FLA at home vs VGK: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	FLA
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	0	0.68
1	VGK	14	0	0.66
2	FLA	18	0	0.60
2	VGK	16	1	1.27
3	FLA	22	1	1.56
3	VGK	7	1	0.50
4	FLA	6	0	0.58
4	VGK	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9