New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-10-19 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 New York Rangers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 47.4%
NYR: 52.6%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.63
NYR: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 41%
Over 6.5: 29%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
| Stat | TOR | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.879 | 0.892 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYR: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | TOR 4 - 3 NYR | TOR | NYR |
| 2026-03-05 | NYR 6 - 2 TOR | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-10-16 | TOR 2 - 1 NYR | TOR | NYR |
| 2025-03-20 | NYR 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | NYR |
| 2025-02-28 | NYR 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:44 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:08 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 03:40 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:00 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 52.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 New York Rangers
Expected: 2.6 - 3.2
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.